Last week: 7 Aug US tariffs applied; US stocks jumped on strong earnings; US Bond yields higher; BOE cut by 25bps
WEEKLY TRENDS
After the saga of the US job figures the previous week that led to a large stock indices correction, we had last week strong earnings and outlooks from Palantir, Siemens AG, Allianz and Pfizer to name just a few, pushing the indices to new highs (except India which was hit with a new 50% US tariffs plan)
83% of the S&P companies having reported their earnings now, beating expectations by 7% on average. Technology sector taking the biggest share (eg Palantir +18% last week only)
USD was weaker last week, helping Gold (despite higher US Bond yields). Oil was a lot lower following the OPEC+ decision to increase production on Sep 1st, fear of lower growth due to new larger US tariffs, especially on India, and a possible truce in Ukraine
Focus remains on a potential peace deal in Ukraine and the new threat of 250% US tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and 100% on imported chips, semiconductors
MARKETS
Equities
Earnings released stock weekly performances:
Palantir (+18%), Shopify (+26%), Siemens AG (+8%), Allianz (+8%)
Eli Lilly (-18%), AMD (-1%), Beiersdorf (-7%), Bayer (-8%)
US curve (2-10 years) steepening stable at 52bps. Bond yields higher.
HY corporate spreads higher at 295bps for US (+9) at 274bps for EU
Commodities
Oil price lower (-5% on potential truce in UA, higher production from OPEC+ and fear of lower global growth on new US tariffs)
Gold price higher (+1% despite higher US yields, helped by weaker USD)
UK
BOE cut its base rate by 25bps, at 4% now (rare 2nd vote needed)
China
July exports stood at +7.2% YoY in USD terms vs +5.4% expected (trade surplus at $683bn or +32% higher than for the same period last year)
Crypto
Ether (ETH) ended the week at +12% vs BTC at +2%
Under the watch
NY Gold delivery (hit by a potential new tariff on imported bars). Silver may soon replace Gold as best performer (+60% over the last 2 years vs +75% for Gold). Silver is up 31% YTD vs +29% for Gold.
Nota Bene
US 401k (Trump allowed 401k to invest into Alternatives and Cryptos)
Share Buybacks (new record of $925bn for US companies so far this year, that is $110bn more than previous 2022 record)
Upcoming macro data releases: US July CPI (12 Aug), July PPI (14)
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
Robeco: Fintech in turmoil: IPOs, M&A and US reform
Pictet AM: The rise of the BRICS+ countries
Robeco, 7 August 2025
Author: koos Burema, Portfolio Manager
The GENIUS Act is driving the growth of financial technology in the United States.
After a marked slowdown in 2022-2023, fintech IPOs are making a comeback. In the spring, several iconic players went public: WeBull and eToro in April and May respectively, followed by neobank Chime in June. The latter ended the month up 28% from its IPO price, bringing its valuation to $13 billion.
The most notable IPO was that of Circle, a stablecoin issuer, whose share price rose nearly ninefold at its peak before closing the month of June with a market capitalisation of $40 billion. At the same time, private financing remains active. Ramp, which specialises in corporate expense management, raised an additional $200 million (valuation: $16 billion). Stripe acquired Privy, a crypto wallet provider, while Xero bought the Melio payment platform for $2.5 billion. These transactions reflect renewed confidence in the sector's growth.
The GENIUS Act paves the way for regulated tokenisation.
The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing the National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act of 2025), passed by the US Senate in June, marks a turning point for the recognition of stablecoins. It should enable banks and regulated issuers to offer tokenised dollars as early as this summer.
The integration of stablecoins into domestic and cross-border payments, as well as treasury operations, thus enters a clear legal framework. The speed with which retail giants are responding to these developments is significant.
Amazon and Walmart are each exploring the possibility of issuing their own stablecoin, which would allow them to achieve substantial savings on transaction fees. At the same time, Coinbase, in partnership with Shopify, has launched a USDC payment solution based on its layer 2 blockchain, Base. Launched in June, this technology integrates seamlessly with Shopify's payment processing system for merchants.
These modular architectures are based on programmable payment flows that replicate the logic of traditional e-commerce and will enable tokenised payments to be easily adopted and deployed at scale by online merchants. Fiserv also plans to launch its own dollar-backed stablecoin (FIUSD), in collaboration with Paxos and Circle, on the Solana blockchain. This type of project, combining blockchain and banking infrastructure, aims to offer continuous settlement, embedded compliance and real-time interoperability.
Stablecoins: rapid growth and widespread adoption.
The economic model for stablecoins is based on interest payments on fiat currency deposits held in banks or sovereign securities. At the end of June, the total value of stablecoins on public blockchains stood at USD 254 billion, mainly divided between USDT (USD 159 billion) and USDC (USD 61 billion).
By way of comparison, the US M2 money supply stood at USD 22 trillion at the end of May. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, this market could be worth USD 3.7 trillion by 2030, indicating potential adoption beyond digital assets alone. The growth in transaction volumes, although impacted by algorithmic trading, remains significant: in June, adjusted volume grew by 104% year-on-year to exceed USD 800 billion.
The adoption of stablecoins can be assessed through the growth in transaction volumes – despite some distortions related to bots and high-frequency trading. By way of comparison, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, estimates that his bank processes some USD 10 trillion in payments every day: an order of magnitude that highlights the still largely untapped potential of stablecoins.
The implications of tokenisation.
Visa and Mastercard, two giants of traditional commercial payment systems, have invested heavily in integrating the use of stablecoins into their networks. Visa CEO Ryan McInerney has expressed optimism about the future of stablecoins, while emphasising the importance of trust, ease of use and scale in promoting their adoption.
Although the use of stablecoins beyond the digital asset ecosystem is still in its infancy, it seems to challenge the business models of card issuers more than those of payment networks themselves. Visa and Mastercard's tokenisation capabilities and merchant networks remain major strategic assets for bridging the gap between traditional systems and the world of cryptocurrencies, even if this raises questions about their long-term growth potential. Both stocks reached historic highs in June before falling 5.5% at the end of the month.
Also in June, Robinhood hosted the To Catch A Token event, focused on the development of its Layer 2 blockchain, optimised for real assets. This infrastructure enables continuous asset transfers at any time. Robinhood announced the launch of tokens backed by US-listed stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple, as well as unlisted stocks such as OpenAI and SpaceX, intended for European users. Ironically, regulatory hurdles are currently greater in the US than in Europe.
Robinhood and Coinbase are reportedly in discussions with the SEC to facilitate issuances without excessive legal complexity.
The establishment of a solid technological infrastructure, under regulatory supervision, is a clear sign of structural support for the legitimisation, acceptance and growth of tokenisation in wealth management.
Robinhood and Coinbase appear to be at the forefront of these developments. Robinhood's share price jumped 13% on the day of the event and is up 151% since the beginning of the year, despite a period of volatility in April.
Pictet AM, 7 August 2025
Author: Anna Mulholland, Head of EM equities research and management
Emerging economies are at the heart of current structural changes, including the development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the energy transition and the protection of natural resources. Through its growing influence, the BRICS+ alliance will help increase the impact of emerging economies on the rest of the world, stimulate foreign investment and thus boost their growth. For investors, this will result in a proliferation of opportunities in listed companies in emerging markets.
Leaders in AI.
The BRICS+ countries, led by China, are investing heavily in technological infrastructure, making them formidable rivals in areas such as semiconductor manufacturing and AI engine development. China also has a strategic advantage in the refining of rare earths, which are essential for the production of semiconductors and other components. Thanks to their continuous technological advances, the BRICS+ countries will continue to attract investment, which will stimulate innovation and growth. And in addition to reshaping the investment landscape, the steady increase in their exports of value-added technology products is redefining the rules of competition between emerging and developed countries.
Sooner or later, emerging markets will offer solutions equivalent to those of Nvidia or Meta. In this case, Asian companies active in the field of AI could offer the best potential returns: there are around 40 such companies listed in Taiwan, South Korea and China that supply the hardware needed for the AI race, i.e. the vast majority of AI chips used worldwide and most of the associated products essential for accelerating this innovation.
A strategic position in the energy transition.
Their role in the global energy market is unavoidable, as they have abundant resources – fossil fuels, strategic minerals for green energy, nuclear power. The BRICS+ coalition is therefore in a strategic position to support the planet's transition to more environmentally friendly energy solutions. For investors, this translates into opportunities in both traditional sectors and the renewable energy industry. In addition to strengthening its resilience to adversity, this diversification in the energy sector increases its influence on the geopolitical stage, as control over energy resources becomes crucial in an increasingly polarised world.
Thanks to the efforts of China and its neighbours, among others, emerging Asia is now the second region in the world after Europe to invest more in green technologies than in fossil fuels, demonstrating its commitment to the energy transition.
Natural resources, a guarantee for the future.
The BRICS+ countries possess abundant natural resources, which play a vital role in their economic development and, therefore, in their growth strategy. The coalition has a significant influence on global production of many raw materials, including industrial metals and rare earths, which are essential for the industrial and technological sectors.
The coalition's dominance in raw materials production challenges the historical supremacy of the G7 nations and the European Union, to such an extent that it could reverse the dynamics of global trade and the geopolitical landscape. The BRICS also appear to be in a position to meet the ever-increasing demand for raw materials, fuelled by technological advances and the green transition, thus offering investors attractive opportunities in mining and processing industries.
In conclusion, the rise of BRICS+ should encourage investors to review their investment strategy in listed emerging equities and focus on the technology, energy supply and raw materials sectors. The evolution of this dynamic certainly presents challenges, but it also offers opportunities: investors will have to navigate a complex geopolitical and economic environment, but they could reap solid rewards.
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