Last week: impressive US Q3 GDP; higher US Sep PCE inflation; record highs for Gold, Silver and Copper
WEEKLY TRENDS
During a holiday shortened week, stock indices hit record highs last week and so did Gold, Silver and Copper
Trading volumes were especially light and the only important data came out of the US with an impressive +4.3% Q3 GDP, ahead of the already impressive Q2 figure at +3.8% and well above estimates at 3%
Silver hit $79 (up 10% last Friday only, +170% YTD) while China is restricting physical Silver exports, treating it as a strategic resource
US PCE from Sep was finally released, at + +2.8% vs August at 2.7% and July at 2.6%
Else, Tech stocks outperformed Staples last week and the SMEs Russell index underperformed the SP500
Clearly 2025 was the year of Metals with Silver and Platinum, both at an impressive +170% YTD, followed by Copper with +145% and Gold at +70%. Also, major equity indices outperformed the SP500 with the Spanish Ibex and the South Korean Kospi, both at +70% YTD, followed by the Italian MIB at +50% and most of the other EU/UK indices at around +30%. Note that the EUR/USD (+14% YTD) did not help the American index.
HY corp. spreads lower with US at +285bps (-10); EU at +265bps (-5)
Commodities
Oil price slightly higher (+0.5%) strong week until Friday (when it dropped on renewed UA peace talks)
Gold price higher (+4.5%) - Silver at $78 (a new ATH and +170% YTD) - Copper +145% YTD - Platinum +170% YTD
Crypto
BTC lower (-1%) down for the 4th week consecutively (NB on Friday over $23.5bn worth of BTC options expired, a new record after 2024 at $20bn)
US
Q3 GDP (+4.3% vs 3% expected and 3.8% in Q2) included a 3.5% increase in consumer spending while current consumer confidence remains low (similar level as during Covid)
Sep PCE (+2.8% vs Aug at 2.7% and July at 2.6%)
Under the watch
Silver exports restrictions from China (Comex Silver paper trading at $8 lower than Shanghai physical, usually trading at $2)
Nota Bene
Santa Claus rally covers 5 trading days from Dec 24th (until Jan 2nd)
All major equity markets outperformed the US in 2025 (Ibex and Kospi +70%, MIB +50%, EU/UK all around +30% while SP500 +18%)
CALENDAR
Markets closed: 1 JanUS, UK, EU 29-31 JanChinese New Year
Macro releases: last FOMC minutes (30 Dec)
Central Bank rate decisions : FED/FOMC (28 Jan)
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
Vontobel: Emerging Markets bonds, outlook remains positive for 2026
DWS: A head start thanks to technology, Germany's nest industrial revolution
Vontobel AM, 17 December 2025
Author: Carlos de Sousa, EM portfolio manager
Historically, rating trends between sovereigns and corporates tend to converge, and this convergence is expected in 2026. Easing global financial conditions, thanks to rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), rate reductions by EM central banks and improved US dollar (USD) liquidity due to increased foreign exchange reserves, should reduce corporate spreads.
Almost all EM countries increased their foreign exchange reserves in 2025, strengthening their ability to service their external debt. If rating trends converge as expected, EM corporate spreads, particularly in the high-yield segment, could offer better value than sovereign spreads. However, careful bond selection will remain essential due to persistent risks in certain regions.
Inflows into EM bonds were a significant driver of performance in 2025, with $24 billion of inflows in the first 11 months. While this only partially offsets outflows from previous years, it suggests further room for growth in 2026.
On the supply side, EM sovereign gross issuance reached a record $250 billion in 2025, partly due to countries regaining market access. However, net sovereign financing needs are expected to decline in 2026, reducing both gross and net issuance. Net corporate bond supply is also expected to remain negative for the fifth consecutive year. Growing demand and reduced supply are expected to continue to support EM bonds in 2026.
With global financial conditions easing, risky assets, including EM bonds, should perform well in 2026. Trade uncertainty has diminished, the risks of recession in the US appear to have receded, and the Fed's easing cycle should support global financial conditions.
Geopolitical risks have also eased, with improved prospects for a peace agreement in Ukraine and limited global impact from tensions in Venezuela.
Although sovereign spreads are already tight, further compression could occur in laggard countries such as Argentina and Ecuador, which are expected to regain market access in 2026. Relative value opportunities also exist in BB-rated countries such as Côte d'Ivoire, the Bahamas, Uzbekistan and Turkey. Even IG-rated countries such as Bulgaria and Mexico present attractive opportunities.
In the corporate sector, Brazil offers attractive valuations, with high interest rates and recent distress cases having increased refinancing costs, which are expected to decline in 2026. Turkey also presents opportunities, with high interest rates and restrictive fiscal policies currently limiting corporate cash flows. However, lower financing costs should improve the profitability of Turkish banks.
The outlook for EM hard currency bonds remains positive for 2026, with total returns expected to range between 3.4% and 9.9% for sovereigns and between 5.1% and 9.9% for corporates. Corporate bonds could offer slightly higher returns due to their lower sensitivity to duration spreads. However, risks remain, notably a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in the United States, which could reignite recession fears and widen EM spreads. In such a scenario, the Fed could accelerate its easing cycle, mitigating some risks.
In summary, although valuations are less attractive than at the start of 2025, the combination of rating upgrades, inflows, easing financial conditions and reduced supply should continue to support EM hard currency bonds in 2026. Corporate bonds, particularly in the high-yield segment, may offer better value, but careful selection will be essential to navigate potential risks.
DWS, 17 December 2025
Author: DWS
Europe's leading economy is spearheading the continent's transformation, and companies with proven technologies need capital to rapidly scale up their production.
· As the gateway to Europe, Germany offers ideal conditions for the emergence of a “new middle class” of companies whose technologies are essential to achieving Europe's policy objectives.
· Innovation centres across Germany have become technological epicentres, supported by policy initiatives that are accelerating the growth of the German and European technology ecosystem.
· Recent policy initiatives in Germany aimed at mobilising capital to develop technologies essential to the success of Europe's policy ambitions offer attractive investment opportunities for investors.
Europe is at a decisive turning point and urgently needs to develop and advance high-tech industries in order to achieve its political objectives and cope with unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty. Germany is at the forefront of this new industrial revolution, and companies with proven technologies need capital to rapidly scale up their production. To promote the financing of critical technologies, European and German policymakers are mobilising public and private capital to support scale-ups that are set to become the leaders of the next generation.
This transformation is supported by an already dynamic ecosystem of innovation and start-ups that spans the whole of Germany.
Berlin is Germany's leading city for start-ups and offers everything from software and financial technologies to clean technologies and mobility. At the same time, Munich is clearly pursuing the goal of becoming one of Europe's leading locations for AI and start-ups with its ‘Innovation Programme 2030’. These innovation hubs are benefiting from recent political efforts to relax financial market regulations and improve the tax framework for venture capital (VC). All these measures aim to support start-ups and scale-ups and develop the venture capital ecosystem in Germany and across the European Union.
Political efforts form the basis for the rise of the next generation of German mid-market champions and at the same time open up attractive opportunities for investors seeking access to Europe's most dynamic technology sectors. Germany's scientific and research capabilities, along with its tradition of industrial innovation, have given rise to a class of young companies with ‘first-of-their-kind’ technologies that historically had limited access to capital.
Today, however, they are in a position to contribute to building the European economy of tomorrow. Critical technologies play a key role in implementing EU policy objectives and German priorities, the importance of innovation hubs in Germany for Europe's transformation, and how recent policy measures to improve the financing of scale-up growth could open up attractive opportunities for investors.
Contacts
8 Kievyan Street, Yerevan, Armenia
+374 10 712 259 +374 43 004 182
unibankinvest@unibank.am info@unibankinvest.am
Disclaimer
The information presented in the document contains a general overview of the products and services offered by Unibank OJSC (registered trademark – Unibank Invest, hereinafter referred to as the Bank).
The information is intended solely for the attention of the persons to whom it is addressed. Further dissemination of this information is allowed only with the prior consent of the Bank.
The information is only indicative, is not exhaustive and is provided solely for discussion purposes. The information should not be regarded as a public offer, request or invitation to purchase or sell any securities, financial instruments or services. The Bank reserves the right to make a final decision on the provision of these products and/or services to a specific customer, including refusing to provide products and/or services if such activities would be contrary to applicable law.
No guarantees in direct or indirect form, including those stipulated by law, are provided in connection with the specified information and materials. The information presented above cannot be considered as a recommendation for investing funds, as well as guarantees or promises of future profitability of investments.