Last week: US tariffs reduced to 15% on Swiss goods; BTC broke the $100k mark; US government shutdown ended
WEEKLY TRENDS
Stocks’ take profits continued last week, boosted by fears that the FED would not necessarily cut in Dec (now a 40% chance) amid continued uncertainty over statistics on US economy (inflation and employment) not being released for 45 days. The USD was somewhat weaker, benefitting Gold and Copper
Meanwhile, the longest in history US federal government shutdown stopped and Trump decided to reduce US tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%
This Risk-off mood hit BTC hard last week, breaking the psychological $100k mark, ending the week at $96k while investors remained eager to know the details for the future Grayscale IPO
There is a faint possibility that the US bureau for statistics will release the Sep NFP figures next week, while the last Q3 US large corporate earnings will come to an end with Home Depot and Walmart (gauge of US consumers) and Nvidia (on Wednesday)
Note the first rating upgrade in 20 years for South Africa from S&P, raising the LT debts rating from BB- to BB. Also of importance, the UK government is under strong pressure from its own Labour party, with Chancellor Reeves delivering her budget on Nov 26th
Macro releases: US Sep NFP (to be released possibly next week, after US federal government shutdown ended last week )
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
DWS: AI continues to fuel the boom in US markets, but risks are increasing
Pictet Asset Management:US-Switzerland tariffs agreement eliminates the main downside risks for Swiss industries
Robecco: Critical minerals, many reasons to invest
DWS, 12 November 2025
Author: VincenzoVedda, CIO
Since the introduction of ChatGPT, just 41 AI-related stocks in the US S&P 500 index have accounted for three-quarters of stock market gains. Beyond their high valuations, the growing interdependence of AI companies could prove problematic. It is becoming increasingly difficult to determine whether a company is a customer, a strategic partner, an investor or a competitor.
One could get the impression that the sector is now self-sufficient. In any case, diversification is the order of the day, including in the equity sector. We are now more optimistic about German equities. The positive effects of public spending programmes in the defence budget and infrastructure investments should be felt over the coming year and could put an end to the stagnation in prices.
Economic situation: stronger than expected growth in the eurozone – Germany still stagnating
· Data on economic growth in the eurozone in the third quarter came as a positive surprise: 0.2% instead of the expected 0.1%. Surprisingly, the French economy grew by 0.5%. Unsurprisingly, the German economy stagnated.
· In the United States, consumer confidence declined slightly. The outlook for employment and income is being viewed with increasing scepticism.
Inflation: the eurozone is approaching the 2% mark
· In Germany, the inflation rate fell slightly in October to 2.3% (September: 2.4%), mainly due to lower energy prices. In the services sector, inflation remained high at 3.5%. Overall, the eurozone is on track to reach the 2% mark.
· In the United States, inflation risks remain high. It is not yet clear whether tariffs will lead to a generalised rise in prices or whether producers will settle for lower margins.
Central banks: Further interest rate cuts expected in the United States
· Unsurprisingly, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00%. More surprisingly, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that a further rate cut in December was not a foregone conclusion.
· The European Central Bank, meanwhile, kept its key rates unchanged at 2.0%.
Risks: Artificial intelligence must deliver on its promises, political uncertainties
· If, in the United States, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts do not materialise as expected, or if high investments in artificial intelligence do not lead to the hoped-for increases in productivity, this could put pressure on US stock markets, which are currently trading at very high valuations.
· The unstable political situation in France, combined with high debt, is an explosive mix for the country and for the European Union.
Pictet Asset Management, 14 November 2025
Author: Nadia Gharbi, Senior Economist
The very recent agreement on a 15% tax is a clear positive development for Swiss industries.
It should have limited direct implications for monetary policy.
The previous 39% customs duties imposed on Swiss goods had only a limited direct impact on the Swiss economy as a whole, although certain industries encountered significant difficulties.
This resilience can be explained largely by two factors:
· firstly, the effective duty rate was significantly lower than 39% due to numerous exemptions and
· secondly, exports in several sectors were brought forward ahead of the tariffs coming into force.
The recent trade agreement between the United States and Switzerland eliminates the main downside risks and is a clearly positive development for Swiss industries and overall growth prospects.
Under the previous tariff regime, Switzerland faced a significant loss of competitiveness – not only because of the strength of the Swiss franc, but also because neighbouring European economies were subject to tariffs of around 15%.
The agreement should have limited direct implications for monetary policy. In its September communiqué, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had already indicated that the impact of tariffs on the economy remained limited.
Inflation is expected to remain within the range compatible with price stability, suggesting that the key interest rate should remain unchanged in the short term.
Nevertheless, the exchange rate remains the key variable to watch.
The threshold for reintroducing negative interest rates remains high for the SNB, although some risks remain. With the key interest rate currently at 0%, monetary policy is already growth-friendly.
SNB officials have reaffirmed their willingness to tolerate temporarily negative inflation, provided that the inflation target is met in the medium term.
A reintroduction of negative rates would likely require a clear catalyst, such as a sustained and marked appreciation of the Swiss franc.
Robecco, 14 November 2025
Author: Pieter Busscher, Portfolio Manager
Minerals are the heart and foundation of electrical grids and renewable energy.
Copper and aluminium may seem too commonplace to be considered ‘strategic’, yet their lightness and exceptional conductivity make them indispensable for electricity transmission. They are found in countless cables, wires, inverters and switches that carry electricity through today's networks – and those of the rapidly expanding clean energy sector. Beyond transmission, copper and other critical minerals – graphite, zinc, lithium, chromium and nickel – are essential components of wind turbines and solar panels, which are at the heart of renewable energy production. Clean energy infrastructure consumes far more minerals than fossil fuel-powered systems.
Rare earth magnets – made from neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium – offer high torque density and precise control in electric vehicles, drones and advanced robotics. According to some studies, robotics will become the main driver of demand for Nd-Fe-B (neodymium-iron-boron) magnets by 2040, further reinforcing the importance of minerals in the manufacturing industry. Thus, motors, magnets and minerals form the backbone of global electrification, generating sustained and diversified demand across the economy.
Just as with the energy transition, strategic metals support the digital transformation. Copper and aluminium distribute enormous electrical loads within hyperscale data centres, busbars, switchgear and kilometres of cabling. At the same time, other special metals combine with silicon in semiconductors to produce denser and more powerful chips. Analysts estimate that AI-dedicated data centres alone could require around 400,000 tonnes of copper per year within a decade, representing nearly 3% of global demand. When electrification projects are added to the mix – from upgrading power grids to charging stations – the consumption curve rises even further.
According to projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for copper from announced infrastructure projects – electricity grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy, industrial investments – is expected to exceed supply by 30% by 2035, equivalent to Chile's annual production.
While rare earth volumes appear sufficient on paper, their refining remains a bottleneck: China processes around 90% of rare earth oxides and finished magnets. This extreme dependence creates a major vulnerability: the slightest shock in demand or trade policy could cause supply tensions and sharp price increases in the copper and rare earth value chains.
Access to minerals is now considered a matter of energy and industrial security.
The European Critical Raw Materials Act sets targets for 2030 of 10% extraction, 40% processing and 25% recycling of the EU's needs, while limiting dependence on a single foreign supplier to 65%.
In the United States, the Department of Energy has allocated nearly $1 billion in grants and loans to stimulate domestic extraction, refining and recycling of copper, rare earths and other critical metals. These programmes go far beyond climate policies: they support skilled industrial jobs, regional growth and strategic autonomy.
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