Last week : US stock indices higher (+1%) despite higher Oil price (+8%) Gold lower (-2%) Yields higher (+10bps)
WEEKLY TRENDS
Another strong week for US stock indices once again led by Tech (Nasdaq +1%) as Mag7 stocks released strong Q1 earnings (Google doubled its expected EPS, Amazon did better by 70%, Meta beat by 50% while Microsoft showed $4.27 vs $4.06 expected).
The last FOMC/FED meeting of J. Powell showed dissent by 4 members, opposition by 3 to the decision of rates remaining unchanged, while rising energy prices were flagged as a growing inflationary risk (inflation language changed from ’somewhat elevated’ to ’is elevated’).
All major CB meetings came out with unchanged rates policies (BOC, BOJ, FED, BOE, ECB). The BOJ is supposed to have intervened twice last week to support the JPY (selling $35bn on Thursday and on Friday).
The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC on May 1st, ending 59 years of membership to prioritise national interest (raising production from 3.4m to 5m barrels a day).
Next week we shall have the publication of the US April job report (on Friday) together with the RBA rate decision on Tuesday and we will continue to have important releases of earnings from Palantir, AMD, Novo Nordisk, Engie to name just a few.
MARKETS
Equities
Q4 earnings weekly performances :
Alphabet (+11%) Qualcomm (+14%) Apple (+5%) Eli Lilly (+10%) Amazon (+2%) Exxon (+3%) Meta (-10%) Microsoft (-2%)
Total (+3%) UBS (+7%) Air Liquide (-2%) Schneider Elec (-1%) Air Liquide (-2%) GSK (-6%) AstraZeneca (-3%)
NB weekly : Intel (+19%) STMicro (+6%) Airbus (+5%) LVMH (-4%) Stellantis (-9%) SIG group (+15%) Thyssenkrupp (+14%)
M&A : Nexans (+15% on acquisition of US Rep Wire for €723m) Pernod Ricard (-4% cancelling its merger with Brown-Forman )
US curve steepening (2-10 years) fairly stable at +49bps (-3bps)
HY corp. spreads lower : US at +283bps (-3bps) EU at +280bps (-4bps)
Commodities
Oil price WTI much higher (+8%) Note that UAE are to leave the OPEC in May to pursue a new increase production strategy.
Gold price lower (-2%) impacted by higher US Bond yields (+10bps)
Crypto
BTC (+1%) Note that BTC rose by +11% in April, ETH (+7%) XRP (+2%)
Under the watch
Google reported $62bn Q1 profit (half is coming from ‘paper gain’ on private investments like SpaceX, Anthropic, others include Databricks, Stripe, Epic Games, AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, Tempus AI)
Kevin Warsh was elected (13 to11 votes) as the next FED chairman by the Senate Banking Committee last week
CALENDAR
Earnings:USPalantir (4 May) AMD (5) Walt Disney (6) EUNovo Nordisk (6) Shell, Enel (7)
CB meetings to come: RBA (5 May)
Macro Data releases : US April NFP job report (8 May)
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
Ostrum: Strong earnings overshadow concerns about massive investments in AI
UBS: Tech IPOs are reshaping the investment landscape
Eurizon: Is a rally in Emerging Markets on the cards?
Ostrum AM / Natixis IM, 29 April 2026
Author : Axel Botte, Market Strategy Director
The Iranian crisis appears to be dragging on with no clear prospect of a resolution. Against this backdrop, the rebound in oil prices is fuelling a flattening of yield curves, which is generally unfavourable for risky assets. Yet US equities are showing remarkable resilience.
One of the most surprising aspects of this episode is the lacklustre performance of traditional safe-haven assets. Gold appears both expensive and speculative; Treasuries are being penalised by themes of de-dollarisation and conflict financing; whilst the Swiss franc is no longer fully fulfilling its protective role. Conversely, US technology, supported by solid quarterly results, is emerging as a source of diversification in markets that have become binary and largely dictated by oil price fluctuations.
In the eurozone, economic indicators are sending mixed signals. The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in April contrasts with the decline in the German IFO index, illustrating the heightened sensitivity of these surveys to an uncertain environment.
A resilient US economy driven by tech
In the United States, growth is showing signs of resilience despite a weakening in consumption. Energy exports are rising sharply and business investment remains robust. Private-sector job creation could reach 150,000 to 200,000 in April, according to estimates based on ADP data. At the same time, tech giants such as Microsoft and Meta are accelerating their restructuring efforts to become more agile in the face of the rise of artificial intelligence.
The outcome of the US cycle will depend largely on the ability of hyperscalers to maintain their investments and subsequently generate revenue from them. AI often presented as a long-term deflationary force, is now a key factor for central banks. Kevin Warsh might see this as an argument in favour of monetary easing towards the end of the year, whilst the ECB is adopting a more cautious stance, with inflation expectations remaining on an upward trend.
Pressure on short-term rates is mounting, pushing the 10-year Bund above 3% and the 10-year Treasury towards 4.30%, whilst the Gilt remains marked by uncertainty linked to divisions within the Bank of England. The $15 rise in the price of oil is leading to a marked flattening of yield curves, which is unfavourable for risky assets. In the eurozone, the 2-10 year spread narrowed by 12 basis points over the week, whilst the 30-year Bund remained stable. Against this backdrop, the convexity of long-dated bonds offers attractive protection against rate volatility. Sovereign spreads widened moderately, from 2 basis points in Ireland to 8 basis points in Italy and Greece.
Credit markets remained relatively stable, unlike CDS indices, which are more sensitive to geopolitical tensions. The iTraxx Crossover widened by around 15 basis points over five trading sessions. Meanwhile, emerging market debt continued to tighten, regardless of the volatility in US rates.
UBS Global Wealth Management, 27 April 2026
Author : James Mazeau, Chief Investment Office Economist
If innovative companies with cross-sector business models were indeed to go public, this would be a game-changer in terms of valuation and issuance volume. However, according to UBS Research, the key lies in what these IPOs reveal about the capital markets. Indeed, when companies of this calibre go public, the immediate question is how investors will reallocate their capital to fund such new positions. Some of these funds will likely come from highly liquid, large-cap equities, particularly the market’s largest companies.
It is precisely for this reason that these potential IPOs are much more than just major stock market stories. The companies in question combine business models that cannot really be classified under traditional stock market categories: satellite communications, space travel, artificial intelligence (AI) or digital infrastructure. They demonstrate just how much the economic landscape has changed, even though many investment concepts still rely on classification systems from a bygone era.
For decades, equity markets were primarily organised by style, size, country and sector: small-cap or large-cap, value or growth, US or Europe, technology or industry. These categories remain useful, but they are becoming increasingly inadequate. A different perspective is needed: it is no longer just about the country in which a company operates or the style to which it belongs, but about whether it is benefiting from profound change or falling victim to it. Nowadays, the majority of returns are generated where business models, technologies and economic power structures are undergoing structural change. This is precisely what makes innovation a key investment factor.
This does not mean that valuations are becoming less important. On the contrary, they must remain the cornerstone of investment decisions. What also matters, however, is what these valuations are based on. The decisive factor should not be past success, but the cash flows that can be generated in the future — and these certainly depend increasingly on structural changes. Anyone assessing companies should therefore ask themselves how AI, electrification, digital networks, computing power, demand for raw materials or demographic change affect value chains as a whole. This has major implications for investment. The best opportunities are not necessarily to be found among the most popular sectors. Rather, it is worth focusing on areas where new sources of return are emerging over the long term. This should include AI, electrification and longevity — but also the physical infrastructure that makes these developments possible in the first place.
A look at the current earnings season for major tech companies also highlights this trend.
Sentiment towards major tech groups currently appears mixed: whilst software companies are facing pressure on valuations due to AI-related concerns, AI infrastructure and semiconductor providers are reporting significant profit growth, but also seeing their valuations adjusted. Investors are paying particular attention to the health of core businesses, as the major hyperscalers continue to ramp up their investments in AI and infrastructure, supported by stable operating cash flows. This leads UBS Research to a key conclusion: investment processes should be guided more by long-term transformations and move away from a purely sector-based and historical approach.
In this sense, potential upcoming IPOs are viewed less as exceptions and more as harbingers of a new era. They indicate that the next phase for capital markets will likely require new valuation frameworks, broader diversification and a clearer focus on structural leaders.
Eurizon, 27 April 2026
Authors : Emanuele Del Monte, Senior Portfolio Manager
Countries that had moved awayIn recent years, the fundamentals of many emerging economies have improved significantly. Improved external accounts, rising foreign exchange reserves and the maintenance of prudent monetary policies are underpinning macroeconomic stability. Commodity exporters, in particular, are benefiting from resilient terms of trade, whilst certain technology and energy exporters in Asia remain key drivers of growth.
Furthermore, the global environment remains fundamentally attractive for capital flows into emerging markets: a moderately weaker US dollar and the prospect of stable or slightly falling US interest rates are supporting both bonds and equities.
However, geopolitical risks have intensified: conflicts in the Middle East and volatility in capital flows are increasing the likelihood of sharp market movements.
From Brazil to South Africa, which countries currently offer opportunities for Emerging Markets bonds?
Emerging market bonds could continue to outperform developed market bonds in 2026 in a scenario characterised by a weaker US dollar and stable or falling US yields, which support both segments. However, opportunities are not the same everywhere: local-currency debt offers the strongest upside potential, combining high real yields (300–500 bps) with undervalued currencies (BRL, MXN, ZAR). In some markets, inflation control gives central banks room for manoeuvre to implement moderate interest rate cuts.
External debt is driven more by carry, with selective value in high-yield sovereign bonds where spreads still overvalue default risk. Particularly attractive opportunities include Latin American domestic markets and South African rates, as well as certain external debt issuers in frontier markets such as Argentina and Ecuador.
Currencies under pressure, caution is advised
The main downside risks include a further acceleration in US inflation and a cautious monetary policy stance by the Fed, which would strengthen the US dollar and tighten global liquidity. Geopolitical tensions and volatility in capital flows are also heightening market uncertainty.
The highest structural risks persist in countries with low reserves and high external financing needs – notably in frontier markets in Africa, Pakistan and Egypt – as well as in domestic markets where policy credibility is weak – such as Turkey, South Africa and Nigeria – where the foreign exchange market is becoming the main channel for adjustment. Fiscal slippages are becoming increasingly critical, particularly in Latin America and certain regions of the CEEMEA zone, where debt dynamics are worsening against a backdrop of political constraints.
Conclusion
The fundamentals of many emerging markets remain sound and structural opportunities persist. However, the risk environment has intensified due to geopolitical tensions and volatile capital flows. Investors should therefore adopt a selective approach, capitalising on local market opportunities in a targeted manner whilst hedging their portfolios against potential shocks.
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