Last week: 30th record high for stocks (Pharma up); Oil dropped; Gold and BTC much higher (debasement trade)
WEEKLY TRENDS
US government shutdown began last Thursday but US equities drew support from the US Sep private payrolls report (biggest decline in more than 2 years) leading to more FED rate cuts expectations (99% chance of an Oct rate cut - CME FedWatch)
The Pharma sector had its strongest days in years (due to the Pfizer deal on Medicaid, the TrumpRx platform rollout and the new 100% tariff on imported drugs)
Investors appetite for Gold is vertical (Chinese largest Gold miner, Zijin, had its shares soar 60% on Tuesday on its HK trading debut). Gold had its best monthly performance since Aug 2011. It has so far a return of +48%, the best year since 1979 (return of +126% then) when Gold represented 20% of global assets, it now represents 5%
Important note, the US Sep NFP job report was not released as scheduled on Friday due to the US government shutdown
Also of note, for the first time in 3 years, the SNB intervened spending CHF 5bn in Q2 in FX; the Oil price plummeted (-7%) last week due to strong expectations that Russia and Saudi Arabia want another production rise by +500k barrels a day starting Nov. (ie 3 times the Oct agreed rise)
MARKETS
Equities
Specific stock weekly performances:
Western Digital (+23%), Sanofi (+11%), UCB (+28%), Salzgitter (+27% on new EU steel rules), Stellantis (+14%), Robinhood (+22%)
Tate & Lyle (-19% on poor outlook)
M&A:
Merus (+37% Dutch biotech bought by Danish Genmab for $8bn)
US curve (2-10 years) steepening unchanged at 55bps
HY corporate spreads higher +5bps (US at 280bps) ; EU at 270bps
Commodities
Oil price lower (-7.5%) on new expectations of an OPEC+ production rise
Gold price higher (+3.5%) setting a new record high at $3895. Note that the US Gold reserves are still the largest in the World, next are Germany’s, Italy, France, Russia and China’s.
EU
Sep CPI inflation at +2.2% (Core at 2.3%) higher service costs, energy
Crypto
BTC higher (+11.5%) testing its Nov 2024 record high. (JPM sees its potential at $165k, StandChart sees it reaching $200k by yearend)
Under the watch
US SEC is reportedly looking at allowing stocks to trade on Blockchain
Global debts at a new record of $338trn
Nota Bene
US tech stocks represent 56% of the total US stock market cap
M&A volume in Q3 +35% YoY (North America +53%) - Morgan Stanley
There are 19000 Private Equity (PE) funds in the US - KKR Alisa Wood
Indosuez Wealth Management: USD Investment Grade, an opportunity to seize
World Gold Council: Central Banks' Gold buying rebounds in August
WisdomTree, 2 October 2025
Author: Pierre Debru, Head of Research
Quantum computing represents a revolutionary advance in computing power thanks to a fundamentally new approach to information processing. By exploiting the principles of quantum mechanics and quantum bits (qubits), quantum computers analyse large amounts of data simultaneously, solving problems at speeds and scales unimaginable for classical machines. This paradigm shift paves the way for breakthroughs far beyond the reach of traditional computing, with the potential to revolutionise entire fields: accelerating drug discovery, advancing artificial intelligence, redefining cybersecurity, and modelling complex systems such as climate models, molecular structures, and financial markets with unprecedented accuracy (eg HSBC's recent trial of quantum bond trading offers one of the first concrete examples of the impact of quantum computing in finance).
Recent advances, such as Google's Willow processor, a demonstration of quantum supremacy and a major step forward in quantum error correction, Microsoft's innovative research on topological qubits and the Majorana 1 chip, Amazon's work on cat qubits and the Ocelot chip, IBM's Quantum Starling roadmap, and IonQ's accelerated plan to reach 2 million physical qubits by 2030 have bolstered investor optimism and highlighted the rapid pace of progress in the field. At the same time, anticipation of ‘Q-day,’ the moment when current encryption systems could be compromised, is acting as a catalyst for global awareness, prompting companies to familiarise themselves with this technology and start preparing for it now. Combined with advances in artificial intelligence, these forces are moving quantum computing from theoretical promise to tangible impact, making it an increasingly urgent topic for governments, businesses and investors.
While the momentum behind quantum computing is clear, there are still challenges to overcome before it becomes a viable commercial option at scale. Noise and decoherence remain the main obstacles to large-scale expansion, as they become more difficult to manage as the number of qubits increases. Overcoming these challenges will require major engineering breakthroughs and sustained investment in architectures capable of maintaining stability at scale, an area in which leading companies are already making visible progress. It is important to note that different qubit modalities circumvent these obstacles in different ways and may achieve success at different rates, with no single approach having yet gained the upper hand. The diversity of approaches suggests that different modalities could coexist, each suited to specific types of problems. At the same time, it is crucial to continue improving control and error correction algorithms to enable the deployment of fault-tolerant platforms, with recent advances demonstrating that progress in this area is accelerating. This combination of technical challenges and rapid innovation highlights both the risks of short-term uncertainty and the potential for increased returns in the long term, as scalable solutions emerge.
For investors, the importance of quantum computing goes far beyond the innovative aspect of the technology. It could become a key platform for innovation, much like semiconductors in the 1960s, the Internet in the 1990s, and cloud computing and artificial intelligence today. Its impact is expected to extend to all sectors, transforming existing markets and creating new ones. The companies building this ecosystem are not just developing a technology; they are laying the foundations for decades of innovation and sustained economic growth.
Quantum computing is not simply the next technological step; it heralds the dawn of a new era of discovery and innovation. As advances accelerate and the ecosystem matures, quantum computing could reshape industries, redefine problem solving and offer solutions to previously unsolvable challenges. By offering investors early and highly relevant exposure, our strategy aims to participate in this historic transformation, capturing not only growth but also a front-row seat to one of the most significant technological revolutions of our time.
Indosuez Wealth Management, 2 October 2025
Author: Georg Theo Merholz, Fixed Income Specialist
The recent risk-on rally has brought investment-grade credit spreads in USD down to historically low levels, comparable to the lows seen in the 1990s in the United States and the 2000s in Europe. Currently at around 80 basis points (bp), these levels have persisted for several months, even years. This shows that a tightening of premiums does not necessarily lead to an immediate correction and can be sustained over time.
The macroeconomic backdrop supports this scenario. In the United States, growth is expected to converge towards 1.8% in 2026, a modest but robust pace, in line with the Federal Reserve's (FED) projections. At the same time, inflation continues to slow. The FED anticipates that its key indicator, the Core PCE, will reach 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, levels in line with its price stability objective.
At the same time, Jerome Powell has clearly indicated that the cycle of rate cuts is now underway. This represents a third factor in favour of corporate credit. Even if there are ‘only’ two cuts this year and two more in 2026, which are slightly less dovish than market expectations, the trend remains favourable for this asset class in a scenario of moderate growth and no major crisis. On the one hand, companies are benefiting from lower refinancing costs. On the other hand, bond prices appreciate when yields fall, offering potential for appreciation.
In addition to this favourable macroeconomic environment, several technical and fundamental factors continue to support USD Investment Grade:
- Since the peak of COVID, the average leverage (net debt/EBITDA) of companies has improved, falling from 3x to 2.4x today, slightly below the European level for Investment Grade. Furthermore, the EBITDA/interest coverage ratio has reached a high level of 10x. As a result, in July, the segment saw more upgrades than downgrades in ratings. This confirms the favourable momentum for issuers.
- Flows into core intermediate bonds also attracted more than $20 bn for the second consecutive month, a performance rarely seen outside the exceptional periods of 2020 and early 2021. This phenomenon is partly attributable to a phenomenon known as ‘FOMO’ (fear of missing out).
- Finally, a large portion of new issues is used to refinance maturing bonds, which limits the net volume of issues. This situation creates a favourable imbalance between supply and demand, supporting prices.
Even with tighter valuations, carry remains attractive, especially in the BBB segment. These securities still offer excess returns compared to higher-rated excess returns (positive excess return above the risk-free rate), even in the absence of further tightening of premiums. Recently, BBB credit spreads have narrowed less than those of higher-rated segments (A), making them relatively more attractive. The recent decompression between BB and BBB further enhances this appeal. Rigorous issuer selection therefore remains key to capturing the spread.
Regardless of current premium levels, yield-seeking investors (whether insurers, pension funds or private clients) continue to be attracted by returns of around 5%. These levels are not guaranteed to persist indefinitely, and it seems wise to seize this opportunity while it lasts.
Finally, seasonality is also a factor, with the end of the year historically favourable for quality assets, particularly USD investment grade corporate credit.
World Gold Council, 3 October 2025
Author: Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst
· Following a pause in July, central banks return to buying in August by adding a net 15t to global reserves
· The NB of Kazakhstan was the largest gold buyer in the month, together with the NB of Bulgaria and the CB of El Salvador
· The National Bank of Poland – the largest purchaser YTD, reaffirmed its commitment to Gold by increasing its target share
During August seven central banks reported increases (of one tonne or more) in their gold reserves. In contrast, only two central banks have reported a decline in their gold reserves in August.
The National Bankof Kazakhstan added 8t, the sixth consecutive month of buying. Its gold holdings now total 316t, 32t higher than at the end of 2024.
Bulgarian National Bank gold reserves rose by 2t, the largest monthly increase since June 1997 (8t), to 43t. In January 2026 Bulgaria will become the 21st member state of the eurozone and may transfer some gold to the ECB as part of the accession procedure.
The CB of Turkey added another 2t to official gold reserves (comprising central bank and Treasury holdings). YTD official reserves have risen by 21t to 639t.
The People's Bank of China reported a 2t purchase, the tenth consecutive reported monthly increase in gold reserves. Total gold holdings have now crept past 2,300t, but still account for 7% of total international reserves.
The CB of Uzbekistan also added 2t during the month. Total gold reserves now stand at 366t, 17t lower than at the end of 2024.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) continued its steady accumulation of gold, purchasing a further 2t. This extends the bank’s monthly buying streak to 30 months, and lifts total gold reserves to 65t.
The CNB aims to hold 100t of gold as part of its international reserves by the end of 2028.
The Bank of Ghana bought 2t, lifting its YTD buying to 5t and its gold reserves to 36t.
The CB of Russia (3t) and Bank Indonesia (2t) were the only sellers of gold (most likely related to coin-minting programmes).
In September the National Bank of Poland (NBP) confirmed that it would be raising the target gold share within its international reserves from 20% to 30%. Having reached its previous target earlier this year, due to both sizeable buying and price appreciation, the NBP has since kept the level of its gold reserves unchanged. This new target indicates that the NBP will resume active gold purchases, although the bank did make clear that: “The scale and pace of purchases will depend on market conditions.” Despite the recent pause in accumulation, the NBP remains the leading buyer this year, having added 67t to its gold reserves y-t-d. Total gold holdings stood at 515t at the end of August.
The Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador also reported an increase of 13,999oz (less than 0.5t) in its gold reserves in September. In announcing the purchase, the bank noted : “… this acquisition is a long-term positioning based on a prudential balance in the composition of the assets that make up the International Reserves.” Following the addition, the bank holds just under 2t of gold.
Contacts
Main office
1-5, № 53, 12 Charents Str., Yerevan, 0025
+374 43 00-43-82
Broker
broker@unibankinvest.am
research@unibankinvest.am
Disclaimer
The information presented in the document contains a general overview of the products and services offered by Unibank OJSC (registered trademark – Unibank Invest, hereinafter referred to as the Bank).
The information is intended solely for the attention of the persons to whom it is addressed. Further dissemination of this information is allowed only with the prior consent of the Bank.
The information is only indicative, is not exhaustive and is provided solely for discussion purposes. The information should not be regarded as a public offer, request or invitation to purchase or sell any securities, financial instruments or services. The Bank reserves the right to make a final decision on the provision of these products and/or services to a specific customer, including refusing to provide products and/or services if such activities would be contrary to applicable law.
No guarantees in direct or indirect form, including those stipulated by law, are provided in connection with the specified information and materials. The information presented above cannot be considered as a recommendation for investing funds, as well as guarantees or promises of future profitability of investments.